Ukraine’s recent extensive attack on Moscow, which involved striking a major refinery and resulted in dense black smoke billowing over the city, intensified the impact of Kyiv’s ongoing drone operations on the Russian populace even before the assault. In Crimea, the governor, installed by Russia following the 2014 annexation, imposed a nighttime ban on motorcycles and scooters due to their resemblance to the drones frequently flying over the region. The peninsula has been grappling with fuel shortages, empty pumps, and supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian strikes aimed at disrupting transportation routes.
Although Moscow has not yet experienced fuel shortages like Crimea, experts highlight that Ukraine’s escalating drone attacks are placing mounting pressure on Russia’s energy sector. Oleksandr Kharchenko, the director of Kyiv’s Energy Industry Research Center, expressed concern over the civilian suffering but emphasized the role of Moscow residents in potentially halting the conflict, as he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be inclined towards peace.
During the recent attack on Russia’s capital, which involved around 200 drones targeting the city and its environs, Putin was absent from Moscow, hosting leaders from Southeast Asian nations in Kazan, over 700 kilometers away. The assault resulted in injuries, including the tragic death of an eight-year-old girl, building damage, and vehicular fires. The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft and located in the southeastern part of the city, previously supplied nearly 40% of the capital’s fuel before being hit twice in a week.
Following the attack, videos circulated online capturing the chaos as air defenses attempted to intercept the drones. Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, acknowledged the challenging conditions in the fuel market attributed to high seasonal demand and unexpected refinery disruptions. While the supply to crucial facilities remains ensured, refueling from gas stations is encouraged over filling canisters.
In Crimea, where essential infrastructure like rail lines and roads have been recurrent drone targets, fuel rationing has been implemented. The governor of Sevastopol, Crimea’s largest city, maintained a 20-liter gasoline limit per vehicle, coinciding with Ukraine’s reported strikes on railway bridges in the region. Reports of fuel shortages in various Russian regions, including Dagestan, have emerged, prompting Russia to consider fuel imports from Asia to alleviate the scarcity.
Kharchenko, assessing Russia’s refining capacity, noted that the recent attack has initiated a noticeable fuel deficit. He projected that sustained impacts would require Ukraine to persist in targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure for an additional four to six weeks, gradually exacerbating the situation. At a defense convention in Paris, Fire Point, a Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturer, showcased footage of the Moscow strikes, underscoring the shift of war to Moscow and the consequential strain on Russia’s military logistics.
Iryna Terekh, CEO and CTO of Fire Point, emphasized the significance of targeting energy installations and logistical routes crucial for Russia’s military operations, which have contributed to mounting pressure on Russian forces. The ongoing conflict signifies a paradigm shift for Moscow, highlighting the imminent threat of war reaching its doorstep.
The situation underscores the evolving dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukraine’s strategic drone operations reshaping the battleground and exerting substantial pressure on Russia’s energy infrastructure and supply chains.