The El Niño weather pattern is forecasted to strengthen further until 2027, potentially becoming the most potent event on record, raising the likelihood of extreme weather conditions next year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences monitored over the past four decades.
The UN’s weather agency indicated a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, marking the first time such a high level of confidence has been expressed. A powerful El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, noting the undeniable scientific evidence pointing to a warming planet in uncharted territory. El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing severe weather fluctuations in Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already impacted agricultural production in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO expects the El Niño event to peak later this year but anticipates its effects to persist into 2027, leading to elevated global temperatures next year. In response, the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning measures to mitigate potential risks.
Saulo highlighted the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian system to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.