Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, even though this has not escalated into direct military engagement. This belief allows the Kremlin to allocate resources for probing attacks on NATO defenses to assess vulnerabilities and boundaries. Russia has been conducting covert operations in Europe targeting NATO countries, such as sabotaging Polish railways, disrupting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching aggressive campaigns against supply chains to weaken NATO’s support for Ukraine.
The primary goals of these actions are to increase the costs for NATO supporting Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western countries. While Russia’s activities have not crossed the threshold for a military response from NATO, its use of third-party proxies complicates attribution. However, these sabotage attacks lack coordination across Europe and do not always correlate with the level of support countries provide to Ukraine.
Countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which offer significant military aid to Ukraine, have experienced more physical attacks compared to the UK, despite the UK’s substantial support for Ukraine. Russia maintains a keen interest in the UK, investing resources in surveillance and data collection, as evidenced by recent incidents like the Yantar surveillance vessel encroaching on British waters.
Following the expulsion of diplomats in 2022, Russia has faced challenges in rebuilding its intelligence networks, leading to reliance on local proxies and reduced coordination in its operations. Despite these limitations, Russia is likely to adapt and pose a continuing risk to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.