Last week, residents of Moscow witnessed a disturbing scene as black smoke hovered above the city while Ukrainian drones flew overhead. This marked Ukraine’s most significant drone attack on the Russian capital since the commencement of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The relentless strikes targeted a major oil refinery on the outskirts of the city, causing disruptions with hundreds of flight delays and cancellations.
In response to the attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned, “If Ukraine is going to burn, your Moscow will burn too.” These strikes brought the war closer to the daily lives of many Russians, creating a sense of unease and jeopardizing their feeling of security. The ongoing attacks are anticipated to heighten internal tensions as the conflict prolongs, with uncertainties surrounding their impact on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority.
According to noted historian Anne Applebaum, the recent wave of Ukrainian drone assaults in Moscow signifies a significant shift in the perceptions of the business and political elite who hold sway over Putin. These strikes have exposed Muscovites to real drone warfare for the first time since the conflict began, causing them to realize the escalating proximity of the war.
While the attacks darkened the skies and caused structural damage, the Russian media refrained from broadcasting footage of the assaults during evening newscasts. Moscow residents expressed concerns about the lack of warnings or alerts, reflecting a growing anxiety within the city. Additionally, Kremlin allies criticized individuals sharing images of the Ukrainian attacks, with prominent figures labeling them as traitors.
The attacks extended beyond Moscow, with Ukrainian strikes hitting an electronics plant in Voronezh, Russia, responsible for manufacturing missile components. Moreover, drones targeted power facilities in Russian-held Crimea and energy infrastructure in central and southern Russia. The repercussions of these attacks led to fuel restrictions and heightened anxieties among affected communities.
Russian civilians in regions such as Tuapse, repeatedly targeted by drones, voiced feelings of fear and a lack of protection. Reports indicated a decline in Putin’s approval ratings amidst the ongoing conflict, suggesting a shift in public sentiment. Despite some nationalist figures criticizing Putin’s management of the war, there remains a prevalent support for the ongoing conflict against Ukraine among the Russian populace.
As challenges mount for Putin, including domestic discontent and prolonged warfare, the authoritarian leader faces a precarious situation. The prospect of widespread protests poses a dilemma for Putin, who may resort to oppressive measures to maintain control. The escalating conflict raises concerns of potential further aggression by Putin, underscoring the uncertainties surrounding the future trajectory of the war.
Amidst mounting pressure, Putin’s diminishing success in the war poses a critical juncture, with the potential for heightened aggression as a response to external pressures. The intricate dynamics within Russia and the evolving conflict with Ukraine continue to shape Putin’s decisions, with implications extending beyond regional borders.