Health authorities fighting the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are leveraging anonymized mobile data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas at risk for the virus’s spread, as confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative approach, a first in Ebola response efforts, is crucial in containing what the WHO has labeled as the most rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak to date. With over 6,250 reported cases and 3,039 deaths since its declaration on May 15, the outbreak has reached six provinces, caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola for which no approved vaccines or treatments exist.
Given the escalating threat, health officials are striving to forecast possible outbreak sites and allocate limited surveillance and response resources effectively. Olivier Le Polain, in charge of epidemiology and analytics for WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, stressed the significance of understanding population movements in managing the current epidemic.
While conventional risk assessments concentrate on outbreak epicenters, the new approach examines mobility data to identify potential risks in geographically distant locations interconnected through travel patterns. Notably, the analysis of Ituri province, a hub for mining activities and trade, sheds light on the virus’s initial spread.
The analysis is conducted by Flowminder, a Swedish non-profit, utilizing aggregated and anonymized records from mobile network connections. These records reveal travel patterns as individuals move within the country, aiding in estimating inter-area movements.
Despite its reliance on data from a single operator, Vodacom, the analysis has proven instrumental in anticipating and responding to outbreaks. Efforts are underway to engage with other telecom operators to enhance coverage and data accuracy, as UN officials and Flowminder work together to bolster response strategies.