Russia has seen a significant increase in its oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s figures by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been transported to Asia between July and mid-October, according to traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through the icy Arctic waters, known for being a risky and costly route. However, this year, it has become more appealing due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea area.
With conflicts in Iran and Ukraine leading to high tanker freight rates and making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners, they have turned to alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America. Despite the high tariffs for NSR usage, which requires icebreaker assistance, it has become a more economical choice compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, the NSR offers a secure alternative to European waters, where incidents of tanker arrests have been frequent this year. Traders’ early estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil shipped through the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35% this year compared to 2025, as confirmed by CEO Alexander Dyukov. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) supplies to Asia via the NSR, with a rise in LNG shipments following the commencement of Arctic LNG deliveries.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin expressed expectations of doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The inauguration of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil, a large-scale oil project in northern Russia, has already contributed to the growing volumes transported through the NSR.